Escape From Pianosa

I just finished reading the most amazing book–The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It’s a real masterpiece of an essay. I learned so much from the book that I can barely begin to describe it all.

The most important ideas I learned are that there are major limits to our knowledge, and that uncertainty plays a large role in our lives. Experts and laymen alike are simply not good at predicting the future–especially “Black Swans,” extremely high-impact events that are unforeseeable. There can be good black swans (your novel becomes a bestseller making your rich) and bad ones (the stock market crashes and your retirement fund is wiped out).

Taleb delves deeply into epistemology–which inspired me to read Karl Popper–and so many other areas like probability, prediction, markets, bell curves vs. power laws; the book is so fascinating, you’ll just have to read it yourself.

My observation today is that when you learn something new, it’s best to immerse yourself in a subject completely and learn all the “rules.” For me recently, I’ve been learning about economics but in the past this has applied to languages I’ve learned as well.

And everything you learn–every new system, whether it’s a science or a language, has a system and various subsystems. When you learn Spanish, you know that there are several ways to conjugate verbs. For instance, all verbs ending in -ar conjugate the same, as well as all verbs ending in -ir and -er. They all follow their own systems, but in this way we learn the simple rule for conjugating a verb, and then we can easily apply it to the thousands of verbs.

And it’s all very easy, except for when it’s not. Except for the two dozen or so “irregular verbs” that conjugate differently and the nasty but indispensable verbs like ser and estar and ir, without which we would not be able to go or to be.

Pardon the rambling but my original thought was that in economics, you learn lots of laws. Laws about how markets work and economic laws that govern human behavior. They may be harder to prove in laboratories but they govern all the same–things like supply and demand and the fact that when you place an artificial ceiling on price, then you will create a shortage. Yes, even in Iran, they have a gasoline shortage due to a short-sighted choice to ignore economic law.

And so all these laws and ideas about free markets–they really do exist and they really do work, except it’s not as simple as that. There’s a cultural component and “institutions matter.” So you cannot just throw up a society based on capitalism and say voilá and watch it grow. Because people have to believe in the system for it to work. You need more that courts to enforce laws, because courts will not be effective if nobody believes they will.

There is a cultural component underlying all social institutions and this is something I can see but that I understand very little about. In Spanish you can learn the exceptions to rules, but in economics I don’t think that anyone really understands all the answers yet. So I am a libertarian, but I will admit that there are gray areas and that pushing the magical “make everything libertarian” button might have some adverse consequences.

And if culture is so important, then that’s a bit sad too. Because it means bringing prosperity to impoverished places takes deep cultural change and not just checks from the west or military revolutions.

Again from The Introvert Advantage, comes this passage with the author describing herself:

“I’ve never understood why in the world anyone would view me as hiding anything. But as I’ve mentioned, I have been told that I’m mysterious.”

This hit me particularly hard in view of the fact that recently some of my friends have begun calling me “mystery man” because sometimes I don’t tell them things about my life or I seem to disappear. I have to examine things in my head a great deal before I can reveal them to the world, which can lead to some funny conversations.

Me: So I’m trying out for this improv group.

Friend: What? Where did this come from?

Me: Oh you didn’t know? I’ve been taking classes for 6 months now.

The effect is really magnified when it comes to my strange political views or my eccentric dietary habits.

Friend: Who you voting for? Hillary or Obama?

Me: Well, actually, I’m not really excited about either of those choices…

Friend: Really? I thought you were a Democrat.

Me: Well I was… But I changed… About two years ago. I’m actually something called a “libertarian” now.

Friend: Oh god!

Ok so maybe it’s not always about being an introvert. Maybe it’s about social acceptance!

So it’s kinda ironic that most people find my site in search of ways become more extroverted. Ironic because I am most definitely an introvert, although I should point out that being an introvert doesn’t mean you’re shy or nervous around other people. This I learned while reading The Introvert Advantage by Marti Olsen Laney.

Yes, it turns out that you can be a very outgoing introvert, although the behavior we associate with extroverts–going to parties, social events, and big gatherings–really sucks the energy out of introverts like myself. Hence the fact that I tend to disappear socially every once in a while when I run out of steam. In fact, before reading this book, I thought there was something wrong with me. I really love parties and meeting new people and yet I often feel like I need to be alone.

The inverse is also true; extroverts can be shy. Imagine needing lots of social interaction to feel good about yourself and yet being too shy to meet new people. A deadly combination.

I suspect that the people who come to this blog looking for advice on how to extrovert themselves are shy people who want to be more outgoing and socially comfortable. I’ve mentioned ways to do that in previous entries and it mostly involves putting yourself out there and practicing “outgoingness.” There are no easy fixes. That being said..if you’re an introvert, then you should learn about your strengths and play up to them. Living in an extrovert world is tough, but very manageable.

I was browsing quotations from Joseph Heller’s Catch-22, in search of a byline for this blog. I came across this little gem from the scene in Rome where Nately, the Amerian optimist and patriot finds himself arguing with the Old Man in Rome. What fascinates me is how the old man’s arguments strike me as being both utterly absurd, yet profoundly true.

America,” [the Old Man] said, “will lose the war. And Italy will win it.”

America is the stongest and most prosperous nation on earth,” Nately informed him with lofty fervor and dignity. “And the American fighting man is second to none.”

“Exactly,” agreed the old man pleasantly, with a hint of taunting amusement. Italy, on the other hand, is one of the least prosperous nations on earth. And the Italian fighting man is probably second to all. And that’s exactly why my country is doing so well in this war while your country is doing so poorly.”

“I’m sorry I laughed at you. But Italy was occupied by the Germans and is now being occupied by us. You don’t call that doing very well, do you?”

“But of course I do,” exclaimed the old man cheerfully. “The Germans are being driven out, and we’re still here. In a few years, you will be gone, too, and we will still be here. You see, Italy is really a very poor and weak country, and that’s what makes us so strong. Italian soldiers are not dying anymore. But American and German soldiers are. I call that doing extremely well. Yes, I’m quite certain Italy will survive this war and still be in existence long after your own country has been destroyed” …

….”I don’t believe anything you tell me,” Nately replied… “The only thing I do believe is that America is going to win the war.”

“You put so much stock in winning wars. The real trick lies in losing wars, in knowing which wars can be lost. Italy has been losing wars for centuries, and just see how splendidly we’ve done nonetheless. France wins wars and is in a continual state of crisis. Germany loses and prospers. Look at our own recent history. Italy won a war in Ethiopia and promptly stumbled into serious trouble. Victory gave us such insane delusions of grandeur that we helped start a world war we hadn’t a chance of winning. But now that we’re losing again, everything has taken a turn for the better, and we will certainly come out on top again if we succeed in being defeated.”

It’s easy to play the game and substitute ‘Iraq’ for ‘Italy,’ but I think that’s too simplistic. Iraq is not doing so well, and may be far worse after the U.S. leaves. Still, there are some parallels to be drawn. Americans are dying every day and some day we will look back and wonder how the greatest army in the world lost to a fighting force “second to all.”

I just finished The Alchemist by Paul Coelho, which I enjoyed. This was my favorite passage:

“Why do you tend a flock of sheep?”

“Because I like to travel.”

The old man pointed to a baker standing in his shop window at one corner of the plaza. “When he was a child, that man wanted to travel, too. But he decided first to buy his bakery and put some money aside. When he’s an old man, he’s going to spend a month in Africa. He never realized that people are capable, at any time in their lives, of doing what they dream of.”

“He should have decided to become a shepherd,” the boy said.

“Well, he thought about that, ” the old man said. “But bakers are more important people than shepherds. Bakers have homes, while shepherds sleep out in the open. Parents would rather see their children marry bakers than shepherds.”

What a great idea… just show up at the University and start taking classes. No need to register. Or pay. You get a free education but no credentials.

Looking at my reader stats, I’ve discovered that while many of you come in search of celebrity gossip, the overwhelming majority come to find out “how to become an extrovert.”

I wrote the original post half-jokingly after going to a commercial real estate networking event, alone, without knowing anyone in advance. It was an interesting experience in the spirit of self-experimentation.

I’ve been experimenting, in the last six months or so, with ways to become more extroverted. I don’t really believe that someone can “become an extrovert” per se, because introverts are just people who need time alone to recharge. I do however believe that introverts can become more comfortable and outgoing in social situations. Yes, my shy friend, you too can be the life of the party, as long as you recharge when you get home.

Here’s some advice:

1. Learn to embrace the discomfort zone. That feeling of unease that accompanies a new activity is a good sign: it means you’re growing. It hurts at first, but if you work past that initial resistance, good things lay ahead. This goes for anything new you’re learning or experiencing.

2. Go out and meet people. I’ve found that networking functions are great because you already have an “excuse” for being there, namely that you are trying to drum up new business. One you’re there, talk to new people. Just walk up and start talking to them or ask them about what they do. If you freeze, don’t worry, go to the bathroom, clear your mind, and then talk to the next person you see (after you leave the bathroom). Business drumming optional.

2. Join local clubs or meet-ups. This is a comfortable way to meet new people and will help prepare you for when you’re ready to meet and socialize with total strangers.

3. If you travel, try traveling alone. This is a great way to meet new people and works really well if you’re doing the backpacking/hostel style of travel. Faced with the prospect of staring at the hostel wall all night, you will soon learn to make new friends. After traveling alone quite a bit, I really prefer it because I’ve met so many people this way.

4. Take an improv class. I signed up for one here in Baltimore about two months ago and it’s been one of the most fun and exciting things I’ve ever done. I took the class more for the fun aspect than the “become an extrovert” aspect, but it’s had a really noticeable effect on me. It teaches you to enjoy that feeling of not knowing what to say when you meet someone and to turn it into a fun and humorous experience.

From an interesting commentary by Theodore Dalrymple on the state of bureaucracy in the UK:

“His speech reveals what I have long suspected: that antiracism is the new racism.”

I still get emails from the University of Maryland and this month they’re having a whole line of workshops for the “Diversity Job Search.” To me, the message is: “you’re colored, and that means you’re different. That’s why we have a special job search program for you.”

To me, that sounds insulting, and pretty racist to boot, even though I believe that UM’s intentions are good.

And really, how would you feel if a company wanted to hire you just because you’re black or Hispanic? Wouldn’t that lead you to question your abilities? Shouldn’t the goal be color-blindness?

Seth Godin shows us why there’s never a “best time” to start anything. My favorite:

“The best time to start is when you’ve got enough money in the bank to support all contingencies.”